
Fully armed Reaper UAV takes to skies of southern Afghanistan (photo: Defence Images)
(update below)
Killing by remote control, the escalated use of drone warfare in countries, depends on people believing drones do not kill a large number of innocent civilians. It depends on people believing the program is indeed “precise” and rarely kills anybody other than members of al Qaeda and its affiliates or the Taliban. So, there is no incentive for countries to go to the trouble to count those killed by drones and verify that all killed were “terrorists,” “militants,” or a bad guy that needed to be eliminated.
Today, The Guardian reports on the United Kingdom’s increased reliance on drones to fight the Taliban in Afghanistan. More than 280 laser-guided Hellfire missiles and bombs have been fired at “suspected insurgents.” Additionally, the Ministry of Defense (MoD) claims that only four Afghan civilians have been killed.
That would seem to support the narrative being promoted by countries that are increasingly employing drone warfare. But as The Guardian notes, the MoD “has no idea how many insurgents have died, because of the ‘immense difficulty and risks’ of verifying who has been hit.” A spokesperson explained:
…For reasons of operational security, we are not prepared to comment on the assessed numbers of insurgents killed or wounded in Reaper strikes. As you would expect, following any engagement an assessment will be made of the effectiveness of individual mission strikes. However, because of the limited information available from imagery and immense difficulty and risks that would be involved in collecting robust data on the ground, this information is considered speculative and likely inaccurate…
If this is how they handle the issue of counting casualties, how does the MoD know that only four civilians have died? The MoD “relies on Afghans making official complaints at military bases if their friends or relatives have been wrongly killed.” Not surprisingly, there are fundamental problems with this. Heather Barr, a lawyer for Human Rights Watch, who has worked in Afghanistan for the past five years, says:
There are many disincentives for people to make reports. Some of these areas are incredibly isolated, and people may have to walk for days to find someone to report a complaint. For some, there will be a certain sense of futility in doing so anyway.
There is no uniform system for making a complaint and no uniform system for giving compensation. This may not encourage them to walk several days to speak to someone who may not do anything about it.
The Guardian does not say if this reliance on drone survivors for civilian casualty counts means only four or less reports on people who were wrongly killed have been filed by victims.
Considering the fact that the UK has been employing drones in Afghanistan for four and a half years, this unbelievable and incredibly low figure of only four killed means the UK has averaged less than one innocent civilian death per year since it began launching strikes. That is impossible, yet this callow policy for counting civilian deaths seems fitting. Those killing are not on the battlefield but are on a base multiple time zones away from the site of the carnage. In the scheme of increased robotization of warfare, submitting some report that will just get filed away, tabulated and maybe lead to a response where the MoD confirms, “Yes, innocent people were killed and we’re sorry but it can happen,” seems like a policy to be expected.
The policy is only marginally worse than the United States’ policy. As revealed in a major New York Times feature story in May, President Barack Obama and his administration use a method for counting civilian casualties that does not “box” Obama in. All “military age males in a strike zone” that are found dead are considered “combatants” unless “there is explicit intelligence posthumously proving them innocent.”
Counterterrorism officials insist this approach is one of simple logic: people in an area of known terrorist activity, or found with a top Qaeda operative, are probably up to no good. “Al Qaeda is an insular, paranoid organization — innocent neighbors don’t hitchhike rides in the back of trucks headed for the border with guns and bombs,” said one official, who requested anonymity to speak about what is still a classified program.
Until Obama’s counterterrorism chief (aka “Assassination Czar”) John Brennan gave a speech on April 30, the administration had been maintaining not a “single noncombatant” had died. Brennan admitted that innocent civilians had been killed when he said deaths had happened but were “exceedingly rare.”
The Guardian report does not say whether the MoD uses this method to count casualties. But, one can imagine if keeping innocent civilian casualty counts low was critical to the war effort, one might want to have a criteria like the United States.
Both the US and UK appear to do what Israel has done when counting casualties from drone assassinations in Palestinian territories: focus on patterns of life and engage in profiling of populations when deciding whom to target.
For example, from a Washington Post story published in November 2011 on how drones shape life in Gaza:
Hamdi Shaqqura, the human rights advocate, came downstairs one recent morning in his Gaza apartment to find a note from his daughter, Bisanne, a 22-year-old medical student. She had counted four drones overhead, and she advised her father to skip his morning run.
“But I’m all dressed and I think, ‘I can’t not do this, I can’t change because of this,’ ” Shaqqura recalled. So he set off, only to turn back in fear after about 100 yards, as several drones buzzed above.
“So I get back to my door and I say, ‘Come on, Hamdi, this is Gaza,’ ” he scolded himself, and headed back out. He got as far as he had before when he noticed that, as usual, he was dressed in an all-black track suit — the color of choice for many Palestinian militants. Once again, he headed home, shaking his head at the ridiculousness of the back-and-forth. “It affects every aspect of our lives, all day long,” he said.
These fears come from the use of “signature strikes,” which as Nation journalist Jeremy Scahill has explained, target ”groups of men whose identities are not necessarily known…a great indicator of how bad the US intel is. The idea that you have to make guesses based on patterns of life, rather than actual human intel that result in killing people is a harrowing development.” Additionally:
If you don’t have solid intelligence on the ground, and you are killing people based on superficial patterns of life or because they are “militant,” then you are entering into dangerous territory and the odds of killing a large number of innocent people is real. We are now into “pre-crime” territory, Minority Report-style. That should be disturbing to many Americans.
What’s even more disturbing is, like Israel (which has been developing and using drones for decades), the US has done a good job of propagandizing the press and the public. The idea that anyone nearby a “terrorist” must be a “terrorist” is a mesmerizing piece of propaganda. In a way, it’s a slick variation of Israeli propaganda that says if civilians are killed in Gaza by drones or other means of warfare they were likely being used by militants or terrorists as human shields. This is the routine answer Israeli officials give when asked about civilian casualties.
This is how countries using drones can obfuscate the real number of civilians being killed by drones. They can decide to put the responsibility on victims to complain that their family members have been killed, change the criteria for who is and is not an innocent civilian or argue it was impossible to make sure civilians didn’t die because “terrorists” were surrounding themselves with innocent people to protect them from being targeted. All of which raises doubts about media reports on “suspected militants” killed. Yet, the press continues to report drone deaths without properly contextualizing the reality, which is that nobody really knows who is dying in many of these drone attacks. No country is interested in naming the dead. Few establishment journalists or reporters care or have the conscience or courage to try and figure out the identities of the people being eliminated.
Update
ProPublica’s Justin Elliott crunches the numbers and not surprisingly the administration’s figures on drone deaths don’t add up. This is an additional way that a government can make it seem like their use of drone warfare isn’t killing innocent civilians. Elliott shows that if all claims on civilian casualties to date were true that would mean “there were zero or almost zero civilian deaths between the beginning of 2008 and August 2009, and then again zero deaths between August 2010 and July 2011. Those periods comprise a total of 182 strikes.”
Now, that to any reasonable person would have to be implausible, but there is no way to go back to officials that reported drone deaths to the media and ask about the contradictions because the claims were ”almost all quoted anonymously.” And, as National Security Council spokesman Tommy Vietor told ProPublica: “[W]e simply do not comment on alleged drone strikes.” Another way to keep drone civilian casualty count numbers down—refuse to confirm or deny that the strike in question was in fact a drone strike.
Here’s an infographic put together by ProPublica that exposes the contradictory nature of the government’s claims on drone deaths.
*
Additionally, Business Week now reports the three biggest drones in the US military’s are the most accident-prone aircraft in the Air Force’s fleet.
The Air Force in a 15-year period through Sept. 30 recorded 129 accidents involving its medium- and high-altitude drones: the MQ-1 Predator, MQ-9 Reaper and RQ-4 Global Hawk. The figures include accidents that resulted in at least $500,000 in damage or destroyed aircraft during missions around the globe.
*
Rep. Ron Paul’s “Straight Talk” column this week condemns the “patterns of behavior” and “vague criteria” being used by the US to decide who to target with drones:
The use of drones overseas may have become so convenient, operated as they are from a great distance, that far more “collateral damage” has become acceptable. Collateral damage is a polite way of saying killing innocent civilians. Is the ease of drone use a slippery slope to disregard for justice, and if so what might that mean for us as they become more widely used on American soil against American citizens?
This dramatic increase in the use of drones and the lowered threshold for their use to kill foreigners has tremendous implications for our national security. At home, some claim the use of drones reduces risk to American service members. But this can be true only in the most shortsighted sense. Internationally the expanded use of drones is wildly unpopular and in fact creates more enemies than it eliminates.
While he repeats the false claim that the EPA is using drones to spy on Midwestern farmers, the final sentence is a bold and cautionary warning to all Americans:
We must curtail the government’s ability to use drones right away lest the massacres in Yemen and Pakistan turn out to be crude training exercises for what the administration has in mind on our own soil.
Here’s the bipartisan letter from Congress to Obama that Paul mentions. The letter was part of an effort put together by Rep. Dennis Kucinich.



17 Comments

My goodness, how times change.
When I was a kid, we were in the business of producing inflated body counts.
Now we’ve progressed to concealing body counts.
I guess it could be counted as progress if you take the view that the US population is not cheering the inflated ones.
Interesting there are no comments. Maybe we are all so tired of the lies and deception let alone the culture and pursuit of death and the ghastly display of exorbitant amounts of money being wasted in pursuit of having the swiftest and newest toys of death. The shame that goes with these policies and practices cannot be measured or hidden.
One of the shortest and sweetest instructions in the Bible (and I know lots of voices do not care) says “Choose life.” Ponder that for awhile, all you who are making these deadly decisions. (And jokes about drones and WMDs)
I know I am demoralized by the amount of lying. It was bad enough that the Bush administration lied on a daily basis, now it’s starting to look like all Washington politicians are the same.
Yes, looks like standard, accepted practice. With no shame.
Even without manufactured statistics, I can’t see how anyone that tries to be even Wikipedia-informed can be taken in. The weapons shown in the accompanying photo–the AGM-114 Hellfire missile and the 500-lb GBU-12 laser-guided bomb–are precise in terms of where they land, at least compared to dumb bombs and rockets. But they are hardly precise in their effects. They can’t be. They have high-explosive warheads.
If you want to hit a specific target precisely, you do not use an area weapon like a bomb. You use a heavy caliber, high-velocity rifle. In this context, the use of high explosive is a dead giveaway.
The 500-lb Mk 82 bomb used in the GBU-12 has a published casualty radius of 200 to 300 feet, depending on the fusing and height above ground at detonation. This means that anyone within a circle roughly one-and-a-half to two football fields in diameter would be wounded or killed by blast and fragments.
The AGM-114 missile has a 20-lb antipersonnel warhead, either blast-fragmentation or thermobaric. I’d guess that, in the open (a market, roadside stop, or village square), the professionally made blast-fragmentation warhead would be rather more effective than most of the human and motorcycle bombs that terrorists set off, so the casualties would be at least similar–i.e. not precise at all. The thermobaric (heat-and-pressure) warhead is designed to be extremely lethal in enclosed spaces. So, if it were fired at a building, it seems unlikely that anyone inside would survive, combatant or not.
If the target is a tank or a concrete fortification full of uniformed soldiers on a defined, conventional battlefield, the drones and their bombs may indeed and may be precise enough to avoid unintended casualties (“collateral damage”). But in a guerilla war in the middle of a civil population, it isn’t precise at all.
The above discussion doesn’t even raise the question of the accuracy of the aimpoint. Even if the missile or bomb were precise enough to hit the aim point, the aimpoint would often be wrong. Given the small size of the camera, the limited field of view, poor stability due to atmospheric turbulence, adverse lighting, electronic interference, and glitches due to long-distance transmission, I’d expect operators to have trouble finding and maintaining the right aim point. That’s probably why no one has tried to mount a precision sniper rifle on one of these things–high explosive makes up for a wobbly sight view.
If that isn’t enough, the missiles themselves can make mistakes even if the operator doesn’t. Reflections and/or atmospheric refraction/absorption can change the way the designating laser reflects from the target. This can fool the missile seeker into attacking the wrong object or braking lock and flying like a dumb bomb.
This can have a paralyzing effect on people. I’ll just add that there are some bold activists I know like Kathy Kelly who have gone to air force bases being used to launch drone strikes. They have stood there and protested courageously.
Here’s one incredible example at Whiteman Air Force Base from this year.
People are standing up. I am getting a good response on Twitter to this post. I think people should take notice of the fact that the truth-telling is waking people up and that matters.
P.S. The bottom line is that lies, damn lies, and statistics are not really the issue. Cooked numbers can’t mislead on their own–not when the very position they attempt to defend is contradictory and impossible on its face.
Yep if you’re near a bad guy then you and all family members are bad people also. Well like the repugs the demodogs prove you don’t have make up the news it’s right there for all to see just how corrupt the whole system is.
Thanks Kevin
I read about remote controlled killing by video game years ago in a sci-fi novel by Orson Scott Card titled “Ender’s Game”. It was justified as a way to kill aliens or “others”, and now the self-righteous NATO powers have made it a reality. It’s an effective way to increase the numbers of your enemies and justify increased funding for the MIC. The fact that this is being done in our name is beyond disgusting, especially when considering the hypocrisy of our declaration of being a Christian nation.
“It depends on people believing the program is indeed “precise” and rarely kills anybody other than members of al Qaeda and its affiliates or the Taliban.”
That’s exactly what it depends upon. These weapons are sold to the public as if they were sniper bullets. They are not.
Robspierre’s comments @ 5 are right on. Even if one does not get eviscerated by shrapnel, the concussive effect caused by the shock wave from a bomb can rupture organs, bowels, ear drums and blood vessels, damage the brain, pop the lungs, and blow your teeth out of your mouth. And the 500-pounder mentioned is on the light side of the guided bombs in the US and UK arsenals. And the cluster munitions the Reapers are capable of carrying are, of course, intended to function in precisely the opposite way of “precision” bombs.
Victims of the attack on al Majalah in December 2009 would agree that these cluster munitions function in the opposite way of “precision” bombs.
This is from Gulf War Part I, but gives an idea of just how “precise” these munitions are and just how much bullshit the WH, the Pentagon, and Defense Contractors spout regarding their capabilities: GAO’s 1997 “Operation Desert Storm: Evaluation of the Air Campaign: http://gao.gov/assets/230/224366.pdf
Summary excerpt:
“The long-standing DOD and manufacturer claims about weapon
performance can now be contrasted with some of our findings. For
example, (1) the F-117 bomb hit rate ranged between 41 and
60 percent—which is considered to be highly effective, but is still less than the 80-percent hit rate reported after the war by DOD, the Air Force, and the primary contractor (see pp. 125-132); (2) DOD’s initially reported
98-percent success rate for Tomahawk land attack missile launches did
not accurately reflect the system’s effectiveness (see pp. 139-143); (3) the claim by DOD and contractors of a one-target, one-bomb capability for
laser-guided munitions was not demonstrated in the air campaign where,
on average, 11 tons of guided and 44 tons of unguided munitions were
delivered on each successfully destroyed target (with averages ranging
from 0.8 to 43.9 tons of guided and 6.7 to 152.6 tons of unguided munitions
delivered across the 12 target categories—see p. 117); and, (4) the
all-weather and adverse-weather sensors designed to identify targets and
guide weapons were either less capable than DOD reported or incapable
when employed at increasing altitudes or in the presence of clouds,
smoke, dust, or high humidity (see pp. 78-82).”
Etc. . . .
Sickness unto death….Former Law School Prof who taught the Pres. has come out against him. Says we have got to have a different direction.
Lemme see if I got this right. Classify ALL civilian casualties as “suspected terrorists” and then you have no civiaian casualties.
BRILLIANT!
Thanks Kevin for what you do here at FDL…stay with it.
It is likely an intended effect to induce numbness upon us by those who are doing Drone Death Dealing whether it be in Palestine or Yemen or Afghanistan and Pakistan. It borders on treating some humans as sub-humans or simply just goes there in full. The morals,ethics and politics of this being so soon lead to where the Germans went during the 1930′s as a European example or where the Japanese went during the 1930′s as a Asian example. Americans have been doing it since the start to Native Americans,then Mexicans,then Filipinos and to Vietnamese,Palestinians,Iraqis,Afghans,Pakistanis and clearly want to do it to the Persians. One can only imagine this Advantage:We Have Death Drones conduct will keep going until everyone else can also do Drone Death Dealing too which can only be a matter of time. If American Rules of Engagement for Death Drones are then the standard other humans use as well we Americans are going to look like real assholes complaining or getting all up in other drone deploying humanbeings grilles about it.
In the 19th century it was the machine gun that played this role as it enabled a few well protected troops to kill alarmingly high numbers of humans or the horses they were on in battle in short order. Of course once the “opponent” or “oppressed” humans got machine guns it also allowed them to so the same. A historical way of things with armaments such as machine guns,combat airplanes,radar,missiles and surely will be so in time with surveillance/standoff attack/kamikaze attack drones then as well. A few pilots doing remote control drone attacks can keep attacking despite the loss of the drones to anti-drone measures. You don’t need 50 pilots for 50 airplanes — you will need only 10 pilots to fly in 50 drones one after another. It is genius regarding human pilot training contours and not losing pilots with shot down/taken out manned combat aircraft which are difficult to keep replacing. Which is ideal for “non-state” actors who want to get into low-cost drone warfare with a few pilots and some low balled kamikaze type throw away/one way trip drones. Expect it. Sooner than later. Why buy expensive combat aircraft when cheap drones will do?
The wanton cruelty and lack of compassion or mercy that are hallmarks of this Drone Death dealing will come to haunt those who imposed it one day which is why doing it is purely war crimes category conduct.
Americans have a long history of killing other humans who get in our way and we have had many POTUS who have easily let slaughter of innocents take place while done under the Stars and Stripes. Barack Obama is a War Criminal just on basis of not going after the G.W.Bush war crimes. Barack Obama now also has his own POTUS record of war crimes. By rights Barack Obama should be forced from the WH to face his war crimes at trial.Instead WashingtonDC/Pentagon/CIA are working very hard to make killing innocent civilian eldlerly,children and bystanders a non issue not worthy of even being counted. This is quite Hitlerian. Instead we Americans are being told by too many other Americans that Barack Obama deserves four more years as POTUS despite POTUS Obama’s terrible,open ended drone death dealing of innocents.
It does seem to be coming down to Good Americans not minding what is being done by WashingtonDC,the WH,the Pentagon/CIA to other nations and human beings as long as it is not done where they dwell or to them. It is a big gateway this/such an attitude then leads thru to some very good “what if” and “when it” ?’s.
Kevin, thanks for your continued efforts to get the story out about our use of drones and thanks for the link to the video.
Something I’m sure you’re aware of is the Pew Research Center released the results of a rather long poll last week about global opinions of Obama and his policies. Embarrassing for me was the approval by fellow Americans of Obama’s use of drone warfare – 62% approve, clearly making us the outlier when it comes to drones. This could explain, in part, why so few Americans are outraged by our use of drones. I was mocked a couple of years ago over at CNAS/Abumuquwama for suggesting that there would come a day when other nations acquire drones and we could expect blowback, or payback, for our drone warfare. Today I read a post over at wired.com’s Danger Room about a shipment of six weaponized drones from Iran to Venezuela that took place within the last week.
Though I’m not naive enough to believe that there will be armed Iranian drones over Southern California anytime soon, armed drones could be used to attack US assets or US interests -payback of a sort. Murdering wedding parties, funerals, and innocent bystanders does not go over so well in the rest of the world.
If you’re interested in the Pew Research poll it’s highlighted at http://pewresearch.org
Thanks for sharing this poll with me. I was familiar with the results. Unfortunately, I didn’t get a write-up posted here last week. I was covering other stories.